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Fed Rates
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Fed Decision in December?
$10.2M vol.
70%
25 bps increase28%
No change
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
$55.2M vol.
98%
0 (0 bps)2%
1 (25 bps)
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
$1.2M vol.
70%
Yes31%
No
Fed Decision in January?
$1.1M vol.
70%
No change25%
25 bps increase
Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)
$119.7K vol.
61%
Pause-Hike-Pause14%
Pause-Pause-Pause
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
$415.7K vol.
90%
Below 4.70%81%
Below 4.65%
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
$244.9K vol.
63%
4.90%56%
5.00%
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
$285.6K vol.
85%
5.40%78%
5.50%
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
$260.9K vol.
81%
Below 5.25%67%
Below 5.20%
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
$474.4K vol.
11%
December 31<1%
May 30
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
$515.3K vol.
88%
Below 4.9%59%
Below 4.8%
Fed rate cut by...?
$3.8M vol.
90%
July 2027 Meeting79%
April 2027 Meeting
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
$7.1M vol.
71%
4.25%32%
4.0%
How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?
$46.4K vol.
66%
017%
1
How high will 2-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
$32.7K vol.
70%
4.75%72%
4.90%
Fed Decision in March?
$61.6K vol.
50%
25 bps increase46%
No change
Michael Barr officially out as Fed Governor by December 31?
$2.8K vol.
17%
Yes86%
No
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
$1.1M vol.
28%
5.3%22%
5.4%
How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?
$25.4K vol.
55%
025%
1
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
$556.7K vol.
72%
Hike–Pause–Hike28%
Hike–Pause–Pause
How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
$30.6K vol.
79%
Below 4.50%79%
Below 4.40%
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
$1.9M vol.
72%
↑ 4.25%3%
↓ 3.25%
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?
$39.1K vol.
6%
December 31<1%
June 30
Lisa Cook officially out as Fed Governor by...?
$33.9K vol.
17%
December 316%
November 30
